April 8, 2025
Policy Research Institute, Narayanhiti
On April 8, 2025, the Population and Statistics Research Hub (PSR HUB) was invited by the Policy Research Institute (PRI) to present our findings and policy insights based methods, results, and policy recommendations regarding demographic issues and population projection of Nepal. It was based on the Thematic Report on Nepal Population projection (2021-2051) prepared by Samar Kc with his team, Jibesh Acharya, Sambriddhi Malla, and Divya Shakya, in the PSR Hub. This engagement marks a significant step in our ongoing efforts to bridge research with policymaking and contribute toward evidence-based planning for Nepal’s demographic future.
The event was opened by Dr. Deepak Kumar Khadka, Senior Research Fellow at PRI, who introduced the PRI and PSR HUB team and emphasized the importance of demographic data in shaping future policy. Prof. Dr. Samir KC, CEO at PSR HUB, who is also a Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, led the presentation. He began by sharing insights from a demographic study on how Nepalese define a “good life,” segmented by gender and region. This was followed by a broader discussion of Nepal’s key population issues, including declining fertility, ageing, migration trends, and gender disparities.
The presentation detailed the use of a hierarchical cohort component model, a robust methodological framework that enables population projections from national to ward levels under three development scenarios: medium (progressive Nepal), high (prosperous and sustainable Nepal), and low (least developed country trajectory). The model’s flexibility allows planners and policymakers to examine various possible futures and prepare accordingly. The team highlighted how the projections were grounded in empirical data and designed to serve practical planning needs.
Importantly, the presentation demonstrated how such demographic projections can inform policy and program design across a wide range of sectors. Examples included estimating vaccine requirements in the health sector, predicting enrollment trends in education, supporting urban infrastructure planning, and performing gender- and ethnicity-based policy analysis. These applications show how demographic research directly contributes to building resilient and inclusive systems.
A set of policy recommendations was also shared to help Nepal address its emerging demographic challenges. These included offering fertility incentives—such as tax breaks, childcare subsidies, and parental leave policies—to support families and encourage childbearing. For the ageing population, the team recommended expanding access to affordable, comprehensive healthcare. To address migration and regional imbalances, the report proposed promoting rural employment through the development of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and agribusiness initiatives.
The session concluded with an open discussion, where researchers and interns from PRI actively engaged with questions, reflections, and suggestions. Their thoughtful input not only validated the relevance of the research but also inspired new directions for future studies and collaborations.
PSR HUB 